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Above average snowfall expected for DC area this winter – WTOP News

After a disappointing snowfall last year, D.C.-area residents should have their shovels handy.

After a disappointing snowfall last year, D.C. area residents should have their shovels handy.

Veronica Johnson, chief meteorologist for 7News First Alert Weather, told WTOP that the First Alert Weather team is predicting 17 to 22 inches of snow for the D.C. metro area this coming winter. She said the average snowfall for DC is 13.6 inches.

In fact, counties farther north and west, including Loudon County, Virginia, and Frederick County, Maryland, could see as much as 30 inches of snow throughout this winter.

A graphic displays the 2023-2024 Snowfall Forecast for the Washington D.C. area, with 7News First Alert Weather's ABC7 logo in the upper right hand corner. From the upper left to the lower right corner, colored bands denote the various predicted snow fall totals. A white 36"+ hovers above a dark pink color covering northern Maryland and Western Virginia. At a diagonal across part of Cumberland, Maryland, a lighter pink denotes 30-35" snow estimates. While the Shenandoah Valley boasts a hot pink estimate of 30+", a bold, ,royal blue surrounds the area with a 22-30" mark. A more muted blue covers the D.C.-Metro area up to Gaithersburg, Maryland, and further south than Fredericksburg, Virginia, with a white 17-22" hovering above the region. The remaining southeastern most portion of the map is baby blue with 10-15"+ marked just above the Potomac River waterway.
7News First Alert Weather is predicting a much higher winter snowfall for this season. (Courtesy, Veronica Johnson/7News)

As for Christmas?

“I don’t think we can expect a white Christmas,” Johnson said. “But I’m not going to rule out a few snowflakes that may come mixing in.”

Johnson said that, starting in late December or early January, you can expect a lot of minor storm systems.

WINTER 2023-2024 D.C. AREA MONTHLY PREDICTION

DECEMBER 2023 1″ WITH WINTRY MIX STORMS
JANUARY 2024 2-4″ SNOW
FEBRUARY 2024 12-15″ SNOW
MARCH 2024 2-3″ SNOW
TOTAL EXPECTED  17-22″ FOR DC, SURROUNDING COUNTIES

“We really have to watch these events producing less in the way of snowfall and more wintry mix and more icy mix,” she said

Johnson tells WTOP that the biggest storms are predicted for February and there’s the possibility  the area could see one or two nor’easters.

“There’s no bigger weight that is put into this forecast for this winter season than El Niño. And right now, it’s looking like we’re going to have, not just an El Niño here, but a strong El Niño that is going to continue into early spring,” said Johnson.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that impacts weather conditions around the world.

Johnson explained that this will be the first winter El Niño in four years and the first strong El Niño in seven years.

Recent Reagan National Airport (DCA) Snowfall Totals

Winter Season*
Total Snow
El Niño/La Niña
2022-2023 0.4″ La Niña
2021-2022 13.1″ La Niña
2020-2021 5.4″ La Niña
2019-2020 0.6
2018-2019 15.5″ El Niño

*A winter season is defined as the months of December, January and February, but snowfalls can extend into March.

Johnson said temperatures this winter season are expected to be slightly above average, with the most potent cold bursts happening in February.

She said that forecasting winter weather is becoming more difficult because of climate change. In general, cold snaps are shrinking, which means less snowfall.

While a stronger El Niño episode doesn’t guarantee more snow, NOAA says that stronger El Niño episodes have brought warmer average temperatures and high precipitation in the DC/Baltimore area.

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