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Trump’s chances of winning Capitol riot case, according to poll

Donald Trump would be found guilty by a jury over his alleged crimes surrounding the 2020 election if a trial was held today, according to a new poll.

An Emerson College survey of Washington, D.C., residents conducted between August 29 and September 2 found that 64 percent of respondents would find the former president guilty of purportedly trying to subvert the election results, while 28 percent would find him not guilty and 8 percent remain unsure.

Special Counsel Jack Smith helmed the federal investigation that led to the third of Trump’s total four indictments, alleging within the indictment that Trump and his allies “attempted to exploit the violence and chaos at the Capitol by calling lawmakers to convince them…to delay the certification” of the 2020 election. Trump faces four counts in that case, including conspiracy to defraud the United States; conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding; obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding; and conspiracy against rights.

Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is overseeing the case, scheduled a March 4, 2024, trial date that comes one day before GOP voters in 16 states and territories hit the polls for the party’s “Super Tuesday” primaries.

capitol riot flag inside capitol
Supporters of US President Donald Trump protest inside the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in Washington, DC. Demonstrators breeched security and entered the Capitol as Congress debated the a 2020 presidential election Electoral Vote Certification. A recent poll shows Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Capitol Riot case against him.
Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty

Trump’s lawyers pushed for an April 2026 trial date that would take place long after the 2024 election in which Trump is currently polling as the top Republican. Trump has pleaded not guilty to charges in all four of his indictments.

The new Emerson released today also found that women are more inclined than men to find Trump guilty in the 2020 election case, by a 75-54 percent margin, respectively.

About 53 percent of independent voters surveyed said they also think Trump is guilty, while Republicans are almost equally split across the board: 36 percent of them believe Trump is guilty, 35 percent believe he’s innocent, and 30 percent are unsure.

Regardless of personal opinion, 61 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of Democrats believe Trump will be found guilty while 48 percent of independents shared the same sentiment.

When asked if they would want to sit on the jury, 55 percent said they would while 45 percent said they would not.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the poll appears to show that those who are more impartial about the trial are less likely to want to serve on the jury. Of those who want to serve and find Trump guilty rather than innocent, the numbers are 68 percent to 9 percent, respectively, with 23 percent unsure. Those who don’t want to serve think Trump is guilty by a 60-6 percent margin, with 34 percent unsure.

“Registered Democrat and Republican D.C. voters appear more interested in the Trump trial than independent voters,” Kimball told Newsweek via email. “The interest in the trial could be crystallizing attitudes of the Republican and Democratic voters about the outcome of the trial.”

These results follow another Emerson poll released last week that showed Trump with his lowest level of support since the pollster began tracking the 2024 Republican primary race last summer.

However, since Trump skipped the GOP’s first presidential debate and was most recently indicted in Georgia for alleging trying to overturn the state’s electoral results, his numbers still remain more positive than negative among Republican voters no matter the indictments or the alleged charges.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign via email for comment.

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